The 2016-17 basketball regular season comes to a close, much has gone true to form with the preseason prognosticators, as it’s been as predictably unpredictable. A wide-open league has been winnowed down to the top 5, as we embark on the conference tournament, a chance for the league's best to advance to the final weekend of play with a conference title on the line. This year was the first since the 2010-11 where two teams that missed out on the playoffs from the previous season earned a post-season bid, and without a clear-cut favorite, this year is unquestionably the most difficult in recent memory to handicap and make make post-season predictions. However, that won’t serve as an impediment once again this season, as I recap the year that was, while previewing the post-season field once again.
#4 Johns Hopkins Blue Jays (16-9, 12-6 CC) v.
#5 Ursinus Bears (14-11, 11-7 CC)
Wednesday, February 22 7:30 PM
Goldfarb Gym, Baltimore, MD
Heading into the final Saturday of the basketball regular season, the postseason field was set, though who was going to play whom was very much in question. Swarthmore had clinched the top seed and the right to host the tournament, but F&M, Dickinson, Johns Hopkins, and Ursinus all possessed scenarios that would allow them to end up as high as the #2 seed or as low as the #5. Unfortunately for both the Blue Jays and Bears, losses to the Haverford Fords and Gettysburg Bullets respectively, two teams with extinguished playoff hopes, forced Johns Hopkins and Ursinus to play an extra game for the opportunity to face off against the Garnet on Friday evening.
Heading into the 2016-17 season, the Bears were perhaps undeservedly picked to miss the postseason, ranked 6th in the preseason poll. However they positioned themselves nicely as an dark horse candidate to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2010-11. Kevin Small’s squad had a very similar feel to the Swarthmore team from a year ago, entering the year with four returning starters. This year was a rollercoaster ride for Ursinus; a four-game losing streak in December put them in a hole to dig their way out of, which they ultimately did with a four-game winning streak that included a triple-overtime victory against Muhlenberg in January.
Matt Knowles provided a scoring punch for Ursinus this season in their return to the playoffs. (David Morgan/ Stylish Images for Ursinus Athletics)
The Bears were inconsistent at times this season, they were the most potent scoring offense in the league, averaging 81.9 points per game, but they gave up far too much on the defensive end, allowing their opponents to score 74.1 ppg, 3rd worst in the conference. Their lineup was built from the inside out, with a lot of muscle on the interior, led by juniors Zach Quattro (6’7” 210lb; 12.3 PPG- 10th CC, 7 REB/G- 3rd CC, 44.1 3PT%- 2nd CC, 1.1 BLK/G– 7th CC), Remi Janicot (6’7” 215lb; 8.2 PPG, 6.1 REB/G – 6th CC), and Joseph LoStracco (6’6” 255lb). But the biggest revelation of all was their jump shooting, led by the league’s 3rd leading scorer, senior Matt Knowles (16.7 PPG, 81.2 FT%- 2nd CC) with significant contributions from sophomore Eric Williams Jr. (13.0 PPG- 9th CC, 42.8 3PT%- 4th CC). Additionally, junior point guard Brian Rafferty took very good care of the basketball while facilitating the offense, finishing the year 2nd in the Centennial in assists (101) and had the 4th best assist to turnover ratio (1.9) in the conference.
As a team with just 2 seniors, 4 juniors, and 5 sophomores (3 of whom played in every game this season), if they can find their stroke, they are well positioned to do some damage in the playoffs not just this year, but also in the years to come.
It’s been impressive to see the way Coach Bill Nelson has been able to right the ship this year after missing the playoffs narrowly a year ago for the first time in five seasons. Along the way, Nelson picked up his 600th career win and his 500th at the helm of the Blue Jays, major milestones for the 37th year bench boss. Johns Hopkins was one of the deepest and well-rounded teams in the conference this season in both the front and backcourt, with 9 players averaging more than 10 minutes per game. The Blue Jays were the best defensive scoring team in the league, and sixth best in the nation, allowing only 60.3 points per contest, an improvement of 5 points per game from the previous year when they allowed the most points per game in ten seasons on their home floor. Unlike many other Centennial squads, they were relatively injury-free this year and feature a mix of young, emerging talent and veterans to lead the way.
Kyle Doran's two-way contributions helped Johns Hopkins return to the post-season in 2017 (HopkinsSports.com)
The emergence of players like sophomores Daniel Vila (46 blocks- 2nd CC) and Michael Gardner (11.2 PPG, 45.1 3PT%- 1st CC) as more than reliable starters, have helped to fill in the gaps that had the Blue Jays on the outside of the playoffs picture last year. Johns Hopkins gets scoring from all over the floor with 4 players averaging more than 10 PPG, which made it very difficult for opposing defenses to key in on one player to shadow on the offensive end. On any given night, you could see Gardner, Kyle Doran (11.8 PPG, 43.4 3PT%- 3rd CC), Sam Gordon (10.9 PPG, 55.6 FG%- 4th CC, 6.8 REB/G- 4th CC), or Ryan Curran (10.3 PPG, 51.6 FG%- 6th CC) stepping up and having a huge game offensively. Additionally, graduate student Austin Vasiliadis, though not a scoring threat, led the Centennial with 102 assists and had the 2nd best assist-to-turnover ratio (2.3) in the league, which was instrumental in Hopkins’ remarkable ability to control the pace of play in games throughout the season.
One thing to keep an eye on for the Blue Jays as they head into the postseason is the way that they work three-point shooting into their game plan. While they have a ton of players who can step back and shoot from beyond the arc, and deploy a lineup with two of the league’s three best outside shooters, they take the 4th fewest three-point shots in the conference, and the fewest of any team in the postseason.
In the regular season, Johns Hopkins swept Ursinus with a combined margin of victory of just 5 points over those 2 games, both of which were decided in the game’s final seconds. Their first matchup saw Vasiliadis knock down two free-throws with two seconds remaining to seal the win in Collegeville, while the second contest ending in a Michael Gardner 3-pointer at the buzzer, one of the highlights of the year in the Centennial:
#2 Franklin & Marshall Diplomats (18-7, 12-6 CC) v.
#3 Dickinson Red Devils (15-10, 12-6 CC)
Friday, February 24 6:00 PM
Tarble Pavilion at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA
Since 2010, F&M-Dickinson has cemented itself as one of the most competitive rivalries the Centennial has to offer. The winner of the conference title has gone to one of the two teams in six of the last seven seasons, and the Player of the Year award was presented to either a Diplomat or a Red Devil every year over that span. Dickinson turned on the jets at the end of the year, reeling off six wins in seven tries to close out the season, with their lone defeat coming in a two-point loss to Franklin & Marshall in their penultimate game on their schedule.
The Red Devils play the best up-tempo offense in the league, and their ability to be in the right place at the right time is unmatched in the Centennial once again this year. This is a team full of talented developing players, with no seniors in their rotation, and just one freshman, Bryce Allen (8.9 PPG) playing a significant role. Allen is the top first-year in the tournament, and is alongside Washington College’s Dallas Marshall, one of the leading contenders for rookie of the year.
Elijah Wright's scoring and defense have been instrumental for Dickinson this season (dickinsonathletics.com)
In the backcourt, Justus Melton (12.3 PPG, 6.3 REB/G- 5th CC, 51.4 FG%) and Elijah Wright (14.3 PPG- 5th CC, 50.6 FG%, 47 STL- 2nd CC) provided the spark the Red Devils needed after front-court injuries to Jon Stenger and Corey Sherman.
What continues to be most impressive about Dickinson, has been their ability to replace top-tier talent on an annual basis, while continuing to stay in the hunt for conference titles. In each of the last three years, the Centennial’s player of the year has hailed from Carlisle: Adam Honig (2014), Gerry Wixted (2015), and Ted Hinnenkamp (2016). Given the relative youth of the Red Devils, they are likely to be one of the top two teams in the 2017-18 preseason poll.
Dickinson faces off against a Franklin & Marshall team that somehow managed to finish in the second seed, as was predicted in the preseason poll, though few could have imagined they would have as up-and-down a season as they did. Simply put, to say this year did not go as planned for F&M would be an understatement. Coach Glenn Robinson’s roster started off thin, but only got leaner as the season went on, with just three players on the squad suiting up for every game this season. The loss of a promising freshman in Julius Stoma, averaging 14 PPG, 4.8 RPG hurt badly up front. Starting point guard Matthew Tate (10 ppg, 34 STL- 5th CC, 1.8 A/TO- 7th CC) missed several games in a walking boot, as did depth forward Lionel Owona. In the latter portion of the season, 2016 All-CC honorable mention guard Hunter Eggers has been hampered with leg injuries, and has taken statistical steps backwards even as his leadership roles have grown.
After starting the season on the bench, J.C. McGrath emerged as a key piece of the Diplomats squad (David Sinclair/ godiplomats.com)
Doom and gloom aside, they’ve had a few nice surprises: Lior Levy capped off his senior year with career-best production, while Jared Wright (44 STL- 3rd CC, 77 assists- 6th CC, 57 TO- 9th CC), finally earned a starting spot and after an even-split platoon at PG the last three years with Tate. After earning a starting spot due to injuries, J.C. McGrath had a special sophomore season, twice earning conference player of the week honors despite starting just 13 games. Ignas Slyka, who was originally the “overlooked” freshman behind Stoma, stepped up as well and has proven to be a valuable two-way player as well.
Despite their travails, F&M remarkably returns to the post-season for the 9th year in a row. They are unquestionably led by Brandon Federici who has continued to do what he does best, and is hands-down the top pure scorer in the league, a role he has looked far more comfortable in this year. Federici finished the regular season leading the league in points per game (20.1), 3-pointers (83), and field goals (170). Additionally, he ranks in the top 10 of the conference in steals (1st), minutes (2nd), Points/40 minutes (3rd), 3PT% (7th), FT (8th), FT% (10th), and assists (10th).
One thing that is true year in and year out for Glenn Robinson coached teams, is they remain fundamentally reliable: they are 3rd best scoring team in the league, 2nd best FG percentage, best 3PT%, 5th best scoring defense, have the most assists in the league and 2nd fewest turnovers with the most steals.
An odd quirk this season was their penchant to dig themselves into large holes in the first half of ballgames, only to make tremendous comebacks to close out contests. They led the league with 3 halftime rallies of more than 7 points, and had 3 second half rallies of more than 15 points this season. Additionally, while F&M (like Dickinson) went 4-4 against their potential tournament competition (sweeps over Dickinson and Swarthmore, swept by Ursinus and Johns Hopkins), they were buoyed by their 8-2 record against the bottom 5 teams in the league.
#1 Swarthmore Garnet (20-5, 14-4) v.
Winner of the Johns Hopkins v. Ursinus matchup
Friday, February 24, 8:00 PM
Tarble Pavilion at Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, PA
Prevailing sentiment entering the year was of some slight skepticism about Swarthmore, whether they were going to be a flash in the pan, or if they were worthy of top seed in the preseason poll. Historically, the Garnet has been far from anything resembling a basketball powerhouse, with just four 10+ conference-win seasons in the last 20 years, and an overall winning record against just one team in the Centennial (Haverford.) But by meeting pre-season expectations and ascending to the top spot in the Centennial, Swarthmore has capped off one of the most impressive two-year turnarounds in conference history. Give all the credit in the world to Coach Landry Kozmalski for his ability to both build a team that has become capable of being an annual competitor, but also for developing a culture change that has generated excitement on campus about the Garnet basketball program.
For the first time in 20 years, Swarthmore will host a playoff game on their home floor after earning the top seed in the Centennial for the first time in program history. The Garnet have looked dominant at times this season, and spent seven weeks of the season in the D3Hoops.com top 25 poll, ascending as high as the 15th ranked team in the nation. Their ability to produce on the defensive end, particularly in the “dirty areas” also had them towards the top of the national rankings in defensive field-goal percentage (37.9% - 5th in D3) and blocked shots per game (5.3- 10th in D3). In addition, their rebounding margin 13.1 was the best in the nation this season.
Swarthmore fields a strong 8-man rotation, making it extremely difficult for opponents to key in on just one player to shut down. In his sophomore season, Cam Wiley has stepped his game up, and emerged in the conference player of the year conversation as the 2nd leading scorer (18 PPG), 8th best 3-point (41%) and free-throw (77.4%) shooter. His 75 assists were 7th best in the league while his scrappiness on the defensive boards place him with the 9th most DREB (96) in the conference.
Zack Yonda joined Wiley in double-digit scoring with 13.2 PPG on the season, while his 87.2% free-throw shooting was the best in the league. After bouncing back from a season-ending injury last year, Chris Bourne led the Centennial with a 63.2% field-goal percentage. Swarthmore’s strength though was on the boards, with six players who averaged more than four rebounds per game: Robbie Walsh (5.8), Nate Shafer (5.5), Yonda (5.0), Bourne (4.9), Wiley (4.6), and Zac O'Dell (4.1). The Garnet’s depth demonstrated their ability to roll with the punches despite long-term injuries to Matt Brennan and Henry Cousineau, in much the same way they thrived with Bourne’s injury last year. If Swarthmore has a weakness, it’s their penchant for turning the ball over too much (15.8 times per game), which is worst in the Centennial, though given their abilities in other areas of the game, it remains to be seen if that will be enough to derail their bid for a first Centennial Conference championship this season.
Playoff Predictions
1st Round: Johns Hopkins v. Ursinus
The Blue Jays have beaten the Bears in each of their last eight match-ups over the last four seasons. For the Ursinus senior class, Johns Hopkins remains the lone Centennial team they have not defeated over the course of their college careers, a fact that undoubtedly will be a driving factor in their mid-week matchup. The Bears have lost their two contests against the Jays this year in extremely tight duels, and Johns Hopkins played their way into the extra post-season games with an upset loss in their final game of the year against last-place Haverford. I see Ursinus beating Johns Hopkins on the road in a close matchup for them to move onto Saturday’s competition.
Semifinal #1: F&M v. Dickinson
Much like Johns Hopkins and Ursinus, these two teams played each other tight this year. F&M earned the sweep courtesy of an overtime victory at home in January, and escaped with a two-point victory on the road in February. While this game is likely an absolute toss-up, the increased scoring and improved defense as the season has gone on for the Diplomats narrowily gives F&M the edge over Dickinson in this game, but it will likely come down to just a small handful of plays that make the difference.
Semifinal #2: Swarthmore v. Ursinus
In their two regular season contests, the Garnet defeated the Bears by 10 points on both occasions. Having to play the additional first-round game, combined with going up against a raucous Tarble crowd hosting their first post-season game since 1997 should might be too much to overcome for the Ursinus. I see Swarthmore bouncing back off a big road loss to F&M, and the Garnet win over the Bears, sending the favorites back to their first conference title appearance in 20 years.
Championship: Swarthmore v. F&M
In a rematch of last year’s final, this time F&M will battle a rowdy home crowd. A year ago, F&M mounted a huge halftime lead which grew to as many as 25, seeing it shrink to a 1-point advantage with under 100 seconds left to go in regulation. F&M also soundly defeated Swarthmore twice this season, and carry a 9-game winning streak into the contest over the hosts. While this has been a season that has defied convention in many ways, I predict one will stay true to form, the third time will be the charm as Swarthmore will earn their first Centennial Title on their home floor this year.
CONFERENCE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Over the past several years, the Centennial Conference player of the year has predictably (and at times frustratingly) focused on two factors: scoring and seniority. The 2013 season was the last time the award was granted to one a player outside of the top two in scoring, and 2011 was the last time a non-senior was awarded the honor. This means the POTY heavily skews to veteran guards and interior scoring forwards, while ignoring other faucets of the game including rebounding and defense. Additionally, the preference for awarding it to a senior has at times given a feeling of the POTY being more of a "lifetime achievement" honor, rather than for the player who was the top in the conference for that year. So with that mini-rant out of the way, let's try something new: a blind test of five players who, by their complete statistics alone I believe make them worthy of consideration for the honor:
| Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 | Player 4 | Player 5 | ||||||
| STATISTICS CATEGORY | Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank |
| Minutes per game | 30.2 | 10th | 35.2 | 2nd | 24.7 | 31st | 23.5 | 41st | 35.3 | 1st |
| FG | 119-248 | 1st | 115-259 | 2nd | 93-192 | 5th | 72-135 | 15th | 86-174 | 8th |
| FG Pct | 48% | 13th | 44.4% | 21st | 48.4% | 11th | 53.3% | 6th | 49.4% | 10th |
| 3PT | 48-121 | 3rd | 54-135 | 2nd | 25-56 | 14th | 1-10 | 84th | 20-60 | 18th |
| 3PT Pct | 39.7% | 10th | 40% | 8th | 44.6% | 2nd | 10% | - | 33.3% | 22nd |
| FT | 52-65 | 13th | 62-81 | 4th | 21-27 | 45th | 35-66 | 21st | 46-59 | 17th |
| FT Pct | 80% | 6th | 76.5% | 12th | 77.8% | - | 53% | - | 78% | 9th |
| Total rebounds | 81 | 20th | 60 | 35th | 134 | 2nd | 114 | 5th | 136 | 1st |
| Rebounds per game | 4.5 | 20th | 3.3 | 36th | 7.4 | 2nd | 6.3 | 5th | 7.6 | 1st |
| Assists | 52 | 7th | 49 | 9th | 18 | 57th | 25 | 38th | 64 | 5th |
| Turnovers | 59 | 1st | 34 | 21st | 31 | 26th | 28 | 35th | 39 | 9th |
| Assist to turnover ratio | 0.9 | 50th | 1.4 | 18th | 0.6 | 78th | 0.9 | 47th | 1.6 | 11th |
| Steals | 21 | 13th | 35 | 1st | 8 | 60th | 14 | 36th | 21 | 12th |
| Blocks | 2 | 66th | 6 | 26th | 18 | 7th | 18 | 7th | 7 | 22nd |
| Points | 338 | 2nd | 346 | 1st | 232 | 10th | 180 | 21st | 238 | 8th |
| Points per game | 18.8 | 2nd | 19.2 | 1st | 12.9 | 10th | 10 | 23rd | 13.2 | 8th |
Plenty to digest there, but in a year where the teams were fairly evenly matched, it seems to make sense that the players in contention for the award are spread out across talents as well. Here's how it breaks down with names attached:
Cam Wiley (Swarthmoreathletics.com)
Player 1: Cam Wiley, Swarthmore, So. Point Guard
Wiley finished second in the league in scoring and has some great years ahead of him in this Conference. His 3-point shooting was lethal, and he was responsible for facilitating the offense of the top-seeded team in the league. He rebounds better than most other guards in the league, but it's hard to overlook his 50th ranked assist to turnover ratio. As a sophomore, it will be difficult to overcome his age, but in terms of pure production his role on his team and his presence on the floor will make him one of the favorites to earn the award this season, and perhaps for several seasons to come.
Brandon Federici (David Sinclair)
Player 2: Brandon Federici, Franklin & Marshall, Jr. Shooting Guard
For the last two years, Federici has been considered to be a shoot-first wing guard with strong ball skills, who gave up too much on the defensive end of the floor. At times, that reputation was not entirely undeserved, though he has filled his role quite well as a true scorer. In looking at his production this season, Federici has not only stepped up his jump shooting, but has shown a stronger ability to take the ball to the hole and draw fouls. Additionally, his defensive numbers have improved significantly, and his numbers forcing turnovers are best in the league.
(David Morgan/ Ursinus Athletics)
Player 3: Zach Quattro, Ursinus, Jr. Forward
A first-year player in the Centennial, Quattro has made a significant impact immediately as a transfer student-athlete. Despite being an interior position player, he becomes even more dangerous because of his ability to shoot from beyond the arc, where he is one of the top distance shooters in the conference. Combine this with his strong rebounding and steals numbers, and he immediately becomes a strong, well-rounded contender for the award. Quattro played no small role in helping Ursinus return to the playoffs this season, and is definitely in the hunt for post-season honors.
Sam Gordon (Hopkinssports.com)
Player 4: Sam Gordon, Johns Hopkins, GS Forward
Gordon is a dark-horse candidate for the award, but his scrappy style of play, combined with his presence on the floor in helping to guide Johns Hopkins back to the postseason warrant his consideration. Rebounding and interior defense are huge parts of his game, and although the scoring numbers aren't what you would necessarily expect of a conventional player of the year, the Hopkins' style of play that emphases ball movement and a more even distribution of shots means that it would be extremely hard for any one player to earn the award from Bill Nelson's program based on scoring alone.
Cody Kiefer (Gettysburg.edu)
Player 5: Cody Kiefer, Gettysburg, Sr. Forward
Despite missing out on the playoffs in his senior year, Kiefer's numbers, particularly in rebounding, minutes played, and points per game warrant a him a look. Additionally, for a forward his assist numbers are uncharacteristically high, while his turnovers are uncommonly low for a big. Kiefer has been a player who has caused low-post mismatches for Bullets' opponents for years, and capped off his college career with career pests in points per game, field goal percentage, rebounding, assist-to-turnover ratio, steals, blocks, and minutes.
Ultimately, my pick is Brandon Federici for conference player of the year. His scoring, combined with ability to protect the basketball better than his competition at the position, in addition to improved defensive play this year give him the edge as the top player in the league in 2016-17.
All-Conference Honors:
| First Team | Cl | Ht | Hometown/High School |
| G-Brandon Federici, Franklin & Marshall ^* | Jr | 6-4 | Morganville, N.J. / Colts Neck |
| G-Cam Wiley, Swarthmore | Soph | 6-0 | Atlanta, GA/ Marist |
| F-Cody Kiefer, Gettysburg + | Sr | 6-5 | Gettysburg, Pa. / Gettysburg |
| F-Zach Quattro, Ursinus | Jr | 6-7 | Lansdale, Pa. / Hatboro-Horsham |
| F-Sam Gordon, Johns Hopkins | GS | 6-6 | New York, NY/Hunter College HS |
| Second Team | |||
| G-Zack Yonda, Swarthmore % | Jr | 6-2 | Berwyn, Pa. / Conestoga |
| G-Matt Knowles, Ursinus | Sr | 6-2 | Waverly, Pa. / Scranton Prep |
| G-Elijah Wright, Dickinson | Soph | 6-2 | Orange, N.J. / The Pennington School |
| F-Kevin Yrizarry, McDaniel | Sr | 6-6 | Owings Mills, Md. / Owings Mills |
| F-Kyle Doran, Johns Hopkins | Jr | 6-5 | Millersville, MD/Mount Saint Joseph |
| Honorable Mention | |||
| G-Eric Williams Jr., Ursinsus | Soph | 6-3 | Plainfield, N.J. / Hun School of Princeton |
| F-J.C. McGrath, Franklin & Marshall | Soph | 6-5 | Newark, Del. / Munich International School |
| F-Mlynue Reeves, Gettysburg | Sr | 6-8 | Washington D.C. / Church Farm School (Pa.) |
| G-Justus Melton, Dickinson | Jr | 6-7 | Charlotte, N.C. / Covenant Day |
| G-Matt Sherman, Haverford | Sr | 5-10 | Narberth, Pa. / Harriton |
* 1st team All-Centennial in 2015
^ 1st team All-Centennial in 2016
# 2nd team All-Centennial in 2015
+ 2nd team All-Centennial in 2016
% Honorable Mention All-Centennial in 2016
Player of the Year - Brandon Federici, Franklin & Marshall, Jr., G
Rookie of the Year - Dallas Marshall, Washington College, Fr., F
Coach of the Year - Kevin Small, Ursinus
The Centennial Conference basketball playoffs rank as one of the top can't miss events in the league, and are one of the most exciting times of the year, yet knowing the long offseason waits around the corner is decidedly bittersweet. The Centennial is a tremendously fun conference to be apart of, with the passion of the most dedicated players, coaches, and fans rivaling the dedication of some of the big Division-I conferences. I would be remiss without offering a small modicum of gratitude and recognition to the hard work from all of the athletic communications staffs around the league, and for the efforts of the Centennial Conference office for helping to orchestrate another successful season. I am looking forward to a strong final weekend of Centennial hoops to cap off the year on the hardwood before the NCAAs, and hope I don’t make too much of a fool of myself with my predictions. Thank you to all our readers and viewers this, and every season, and See You Later!